>>>>>>> READ <<<<<<<

All I can to do in this limited amount of space is breifly describe what I see in the market or a stock at a given point in time
Outlooks or projections are purely speculative and can change materially at any time and without notice
Nothing presented here is intended to be given as investment advice
If you use any information presented here, you do so at your own risk

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Possible Weakness Ahead for the $XBD

If 2004 is any guide, it was about this same time of that rally when the Broker Dealers started to underperform greatly. All the recent M&A since we came off the lows is a good indication that the there was real value out there and many were positioning for future economic recovery, but that activity is likely to slow down now until next year. Financials in general have been down due to recent legislation proposals that are not favorable to them, so, IF, those are resolved favorably, then MAYBE that sector will rally again and catch up with the broader market.

(this has nothing to do with the $XBD, but had to make note of it)

As far as the $SPX goes, the lows from last week will be watched VERY close next week. If they are not taken out, then there is a good chance the rally holds and maybe makes a slightly higher high next week.

The $VIX 30 minute chart made some interesting divergences last week as the market was hitting the top and bottom end of its range. Even though the $VIX made higher lows as the $SPX was testing the 1150 resistance on Thursday (a bearish sign), it did make lower highs as the $SPX was testing the low end around 1130 on Friday (a bullish sign). I have to say this leaves room for upside especially if the $VIX makes a lower low than it did on last Thursday as $SPX tries to break 1150 again. If the $VIX does that then the setup will be obvious for a breakout to 1164 soon especially if $VIX then makes a lower higher again as $SPX pulls back from 1150 again! Caution is evident in the charts and since many floor traders look at Gann Theory, it is good reason to expect this kind of caution to be appearing in these indicators.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.