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All I can to do in this limited amount of space is breifly describe what I see in the market or a stock at a given point in time
Outlooks or projections are purely speculative and can change materially at any time and without notice
Nothing presented here is intended to be given as investment advice
If you use any information presented here, you do so at your own risk

Tuesday, October 13, 2009


These last few weeks have been like running a marathon juggling 2 jobs, let alone trading, but I have been keeping up to date with the markets. Time has constrained my desires to make weekly entries on this blog but in the future, if I ever see a turn in the market coming or significantly change my short or long term views, I will always find time to make a note of it on here. I was a little surprised to see the market bounce off the 50 day sma and hold up around 1060-1080 and was expecting a little more consolidation around the 1010 +/- level for at least 1 more week, but it still looks as if 1100-1150 is still the next target over the next few weeks.
Meredith put a neutral rating on GS today, which probably fits the broader market as well, since it seems the upside is limited to less than 8% as we head into 2010. (Another point of interest on GS is that they still need to come into compliance with banking requirements. So far, the Fed has been keeping rates low in order to make it easy for the banks to repair balance sheets by making it a cinch for them to make money in borrowing at low rates and giving it back out at higher rates.) I agree with Fleckenstein's recent comments on Bloomberg that early 2010 will be the best time to heavily reenter short positions on the market. As I said before somewhere while posting on another blog, I do not expect this market to go down too quickly, and it would seem likely to form a double top around 1125 +/- over a period of a couple months around the end of 2009/early 2010. I know it seems early to make that kind of call, but historically, markets do not make major turns without taking time to put in a top or bottom and my long term chart, 4 $SPX - Weekly Simple Timing System large (that is found in my chart book), shows that. I give precedence to the long term moving averages and give less weight to the short term squiggles when looking for a market turn. It seems to work!
I really must go now, but feel free to leave some feedback. I would be glad to elaborate on what I see in the markets or share views on a particular subject.

btw. Before the market turned on March 9, I told those who were following me at the time on the previous Thursday to expect the final low early in following week and that the market was within 50 points of making a final low. Not bad for having no knowledge of EWT at the time! Remember, many times in the past, markets turned around earnings season and usually soon after getting a good sampling of how they are going to come in. I expect this next turn to be no different and is why I look for the market to rally a bit higher as earnings start to come in this time, and I suspect there will be selling into this strength.

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