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All I can to do in this limited amount of space is breifly describe what I see in the market or a stock at a given point in time
Outlooks or projections are purely speculative and can change materially at any time and without notice
Nothing presented here is intended to be given as investment advice
If you use any information presented here, you do so at your own risk

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Is it a top yet

For all practical purposes, I must say yes, at least for the short term. That does not mean that the market can't see one more surge to 1100+ on a USD induced rally next week. The indices and various sectors all pulled back to support and the USD still does not want to rally just yet. It all seems like bracing for a dollar rally that may not start until next week or sometime soon after.

Technically, we have seen virtually every sign for a top, but stocks will continue to take their cue from currencies. There are many moving parts there. For example, Gov. Carney of the BOC spoke of possible intervention. Many traders reacted with short-covering in USD/CAD. Markets will probably continue to heed the BOC threat, so in the short term, I expect to see more of the same in the coming weeks.

So, considering how central banks are in the middle of playing a big game of chicken, it would be reasonable to assume that the USD can make one more last drop before we see some intervention, if indeed it gets to that. We all know the Fed has no choice but to debase the dollar for the foreseeable future (2-3 years).

Be careful since we are at a critical inflection point for currencies. In the past, the USD has rallied in the 4th quarter when at these kind of levels technically and fundamentally.

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