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All I can to do in this limited amount of space is breifly describe what I see in the market or a stock at a given point in time
Outlooks or projections are purely speculative and can change materially at any time and without notice
Nothing presented here is intended to be given as investment advice
If you use any information presented here, you do so at your own risk

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Playing the next dip?

It could be tricky and will take some nerve to get short ahead of the weekend but my guess is that the markets drop at the open next Monday from whatever level we close at this week.

Market wants to go lower, but it is not convinced yet which direction the US$ is going to take short term.
Things are bound to happen soon there, and probably over the weekend.
The last rate increase from a foreign central bank came over the weekend, and currencies had a big reaction the following Monday.
We will probably see next week follow that same pattern. With US$ at this level, it will be very easy to see it bounce then and stocks drop on a Monday open.
It will take some luck to peg this top, and I will probably reenter short efts before Friday close depending on where we go in the next few days.

Also, valuation is still high at 1100 for S&P, but rising earnings estimates result in raising fair value after this earnings reporting season.
This market is looking forward to 2010 and beyond, and valuations will probably remain high until future expectations come back down

For now, if i see S&P dip to 1082 again today, my guess is a bounce back to 1095 will setup a possible H&S top formation and be a good entry to get short ahead of next week for a US$ rally induced correction.

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